Let’s Graph Some Alternative Fuel Scenarios
Calling All Statisticians
1. What I would like to take a closer look at is:
A. What is the pre-end-use delivery carbon-footprint of petroleum-based fuels from
• extraction of crude oil
Including the carbon emissions of the vehicles and water crafts, gas powered equipment (i.e. fork lifts) lawn mowers and weed eaters and blowers that are used in the on site maintenance and daily running of oil refining facilities, vehicles of employees of oil refining companies, off-shore drilling, on land drilling, aircraft of oil companies, fuel expenditure in the search for new drilling sites … on and on ….
B. What is the carbon emissions from the vehicles/machinery/modes of transportation running on fossil fuel of the end users?
2. As compared to:
A. What amount of CO2 will be captured/extracted from the atmosphere when it becomes profitable to capture CO2.
• power plants / oil refining plants
• manufacturing facilities and any businesses that release high amounts of CO2
• a new industry and proliferation of CO2 extracting facilities designed to capture CO2 from the atmosphere
B. What would the carbon-footprint of local manufacture of methanol be using the same parameters as above:
• extraction of CO2 from the atmosphere
• local transport from CO2 sources to local methanol manufacturing facilities
• transport or extraction of cobalt or whatever element is used for the methanol manufacture
• transport of hydrogen in whatever form (NH3?) to local methanol manufacturing facilities
Including the carbon emissions of the vehicles and water crafts, gas powered equipment if any that is used in the support of methanol manufacturing facilities, vehicles employees of methanol manufacturing facilities, off-shore drilling, on land drilling, aircraft utilized, fuel expenditure in the search for new Cosmos sites … on and on …
C. What is the carbon emissions from the vehicles/machinery/modes of transportation running on methanol of the end users?
D. What would be the carbon emission of same running on a hybrid fuel of ammonia and methanol (if that is possible to develop).
E. As compared to skipping methanol entirely and going straight to anhydrous ammonia fuels and having nothing to do will providing incentive for CO2 capture, or for oil companies to have a reason to gradually shift to methanol manufacture as it becomes more profitable.
3. What is the life-expectancy of the 150 million light-duty vehicles in the United States alone, transport and freight vehicles and all other machinery, vehicles air and water craft presently in use that require a fuel that replaces fossil fuel without having to be altered? What is the number of light-duty vehicles, transport and freight vehicles and all other machinery, vehicles air and water craft presently in use in the rest of the world and their life-expectancies that require a fuel that replaces fossil fuel without having to be altered?
5. How much longer will such vehicles, machinery and crafts be manufactured world-wide and aproximately how many? What will their life-expectancies be and what will the attrition of the current vehicles, machinery and crafts be during that time?
6. What other alternative fuel options are being considered and what would their impact be as per the above criteria in the below proposed graph?
Let’s graph those different scenarios in a 50 year timeline and see which route of development of alternative fuels is best to reduce overall green house gases.
Anyone up for the job?